可能性排序

比较不同事件发生的可能性，并按从最不可能到最可能的顺序排列——包括结果不相等的情况，例如袋子里某种颜色的圆片比另一种多，或者转盘上各区域大小不同——并用日常语言解释推理过程。

Compare the likelihood of different events and order them from least to most likely — including situations with unequal outcomes such as a bag with more of one colour than another, or a spinner with sections of different sizes — and explain reasoning using informal language

学习证据 / Evidence

• 将四个或更多事件按从最不可能到最可能的顺序排列，并说明每次排序的理由。
• 比较结果不相等时的可能性——例如：“从装有7个红色圆片和3个蓝色圆片的袋子里抽出红色圆片，比抽出蓝色圆片更有可能。”
• 解释为什么有些事件更接近“机会均等”，而另一些事件更接近“必然发生”或“不可能发生”。

• Order four or more events from least likely to most likely and justify each placement
• Compare likelihoods when outcomes are not equally likely — e.g. 'Drawing red from a bag with 7 red and 3 blue is more likely than drawing blue'
• Explain why some events are closer to 'even chance' and others are closer to 'certain' or 'impossible'

评估问题 / Assessment

如果袋子里有8个红色圆片和2个蓝色圆片，{{name}}是否明白抽到红色圆片比抽到蓝色圆片的可能性大得多？他们能否将不同事件按从最不可能到最可能的顺序排列？

If a bag has 8 red counters and 2 blue ones, does {{name}} understand that picking red is much more likely than picking blue — and can they put different events in order from least to most likely?